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Thursday Football bet and thoughts

Luis Suarez anytime scorer 2 pts at 7/5 BetVictor 

Uruguay are odds-on to win this game and think there’s value in the 7/5 on Suarez to score anytime. 33 goals in 48 games for the 2012/13 season. In any game when his team are the favourites to win the game, an odds-against price on Suarez to score has to be backed. I’ll put it up as a 2pts bet.

Anyone looking for an interest bet in the Spain – Tahiti game, “a penalty to awarded” at 11/8 with Betfair looks decent. Also, I wanted to put up Fabregas to score a hat-trick at 5/1 but I don’t have the stats to back up my reasonings, so i’m going to leave it. He is Spain’s most attacking midfielder and is odds-on to score 2 or more so 5/1 does look a wrong price.

TUESDAY FOOTBALL 18/06/13

ISCO ANYTIME GOALSCORER 4/1 Bet365 – 1pt

For some reason, for the whole of this tournament, Bet365 have decided to go top price on Isco for both first goalscorer and anytime scorer. He has scored two in four games for Spain at this competition and with better service, it really could have been more. He’s been Spain’s most advanced midfielder and been in or around the box for every attack. I think 4/1 is huge and i’ve no idea why they have Isco at double the price of Tello.

They have him at 11/1 first goal for the more adventurous but i’m going to play it a bit safer with 1pt at 4/1 for anytime. I’d have this as a 2pts bet but he has been subbed 3 times in the competition.

TUESDAY HORSE RACING 18/06/13

Running Total (since 22/4/13) = +53.6pts.

Month 1 Final Total (22/4/13 – 22/5/13) = +44.8pts.

***yesterdays 16/1 winner settled at 15/2 with 50p rule 4. – 3 bets and + 8.5 = 5.5 + for the day.

THIRSK 3:30 – VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR 8/1

Massive fancy. Been looking forward to seeing this come out after it filled the form that has brought us some massive runs from many in the race. It was the race where Enrol won, Mississippi 2nd, Another Wise Kid 3rd, Klynch 4th, Victoire De Lyphar 5th, Escape To Glory 6th, Hopes n Dreams 7th, Tax Free 8th.

3 of them have won since. Should have been a definite 4 with Mississippi the best horse in the race the other day. Escape To Glory hasn’t been seen since and Tax Free has ran a good 2nd.

All of that form was also class 4’s with a few class 3s but Enrol and Mississippi are at least class 2 horses and possibly listed class +.

Victoire De Lyphar has fallen in the weights for a while now but the last 2 have shown he’s getting there and this seems a weak one for the grade with a few competitors coming with class 5 form making the step up. Victoire is very well in off his best and a repeat sees him bang there at the very least.

THIRSK 5:20  – HOLY ANGEL – 8/1

This one looks like it’s done well from 3 to 4 for Easterby and was eased when beaten last time out. Today the yard’s number one is on top and is was finishing very well never nearer. It could have been closer to the winner West Leake Hare whilst giving it 6lbs for an official 2 lengths between them. It was better than that and now only concedes 2lbs to that one and is a fraction better in price. The favourite is still unexposed although has a rise in class and a 7lbs rise to contend with. That could win but you’d be nowhere backing all of them types likes this on the back of a win and a 7lbs rise in the weights in a better race for a lesser trainer. Robert The Painter was 2nd behind West Leake Hare and just in front of the selection – that has since ran 2nd on Saturday in a hot saturday class 4 handicap which boosts the form and makes it a class above most of this field, if not all on recent runs.   MITCHUM and MAGGIE MAY are big enough prices to get stakes back as cover bets.

BRIGHTON 6:00 – IMAGINARY DIVA – 5/2 

Would have won with a bit in hand last time out if it had a gap. 2 solid 2nd’s on the bounce now and a repeat should be good enough here. Even Bolder is a bit short for me considering it took him 3 and a half years to get another win last time out off a career low mark. Risky with a penalty now.

BRIGHTON 8:00 – ACIANO – 14/1

Aciano has rarely seen a mile on turf for 2 years now but in his 3 yo season he was running to high 70’s and 80’s. Off 63 he could be a lurker and worth a go at the price.

MONDAY HORSE RACING – 17/06/13

Running Total (since 22/4/13) = +48.1pts.

Month 1 Final Total (22/4/13 – 22/5/13) = +44.8pts.

 

UPDATE: Ambitious Icarus and Rex Romanurom are now Non-Runners. Good luck and hopefully a good start to the new week with Ascot tomorrow. We’ll hopefully have a fully working new site as well this week.

CARLISLE 3:15 – AMBITIOUS ICARUS 10/1 + CELESTIAL DAWN 8/1

CARLISLE 4:15- REX ROMANUROM 7/1 + DUBIOUS ESCAPADE 16/1

WINDSOR 8:05 – TOP DIKAT 14/1 E/W

SUNDAY HORSE RACING 17/06/2013

Running Total (since 22/4/13) = +51.1pts.

Month 1 Final Total (22/4/13 – 22/5/13) = +44.8pts.

DONCASTER 4:40 – MISSISSIPPI – 11/4

Another Wise Kid was a selection the other day and it was mainly based on one piece of form which I have copied below. Mississippi was 2 lengths in front of AWK this day.

“AWK – His last race when 3rd behind Enrol is also very encouraging as that one has just been nosed out of a top end handicap off 9 higher. The 2nd hasn’t been seen since but the one behind AWK (Klynch) won his next 2 races with one being as a selection on here as part of the big treble we landed. You can even go down to Hopes n Dreams and tax free in 7th and 8th who have won or came very close to since. The form is rock solid. Another Wise Kid didn’t win or place on the day of selection but he did keep up the consistency of being not far off (around 2 lengths) in ultra competitive fields.  Mississippi is still lightly raced and is well off the first rating it got after a maiden win for meehan. O’Meara is becoming a dab hand with these types and it’d be a big surprise if it didn’t still have plenty left to bring out.

SALISBURY -2:50 – TOP COP 9/1 – POWERFUL WIND 10/1. 

I think the bookies are taking a chance making gladiatrix and asian trader favourites based on recent form when meeting each other. It’s understandable to side with the young unexposed ones but you can be sure that this will be competitive with the extra pot they’ve laid out and there is a few who are down in grade and have come into a bit of form before this. Both Top Cop and Powerful Wind are well in off their best and show good form figures on quicker ground compared to easier 🙂

Powerful Wind’s career form handicapping on 5f with firm in description reads 1111. He’s a massive 13lbs off his best and that was only last season. A busy run with the handbrake on all winter on the sand has seen him plummet.

Top Cop career form with firm in description reads 213072. Out of them, the 5f form is 12. His form on anything easier reads 890740.  He bumped into Forest Edge last time out but did stumble at the start and raced keenly so may have been a bit closer. Either way, the form isn’t bad at all for this.

Incidentally Rebecca Romero goes here too and you probably couldn’t have picked a better field for her in terms of the quicker the better what she needs early on to be in with the greater chance of catching them. There is potential here for Top Cop, Asian Trader, Powerful Wind and Gladiatrix to all be scrapping for the lead. I don’t feel I can justify putting Rebecca Romero up anymore but i’ll be watching on betfair – the quicker they go, the more I’ll put on but for now the other 2 are good value against 2 favourites that may not be much more better than this grade or you’d have liked to have seen a bit more already from both.